Value Forecast of a Four-year Degree Remains Strong
Value Forecast of a Four-year Degree Remains Strong
Talent is the currency of today’s economy, enabling states to attract and retain companies and the high-knowledge, high-income workers they employ. And talent development, especially as measured by the completion of postsecondary degrees and credentials, will become increasingly paramount to state economic development agendas in the years ahead. An astounding 85 percent of so-called “good jobs” will go to workers with some form of postsecondary education or training by 2031, according to a recent report by the Center on Education and the Workforce (CEW) at Georgetown University. Only 15 percent of all good jobs will be available to workers on a high school pathway, compared to 66 percent going to workers on the bachelor’s degree pathway, and 19 percent on the middle-skills pathway.
The CEW defines a good job as one that pays, nationally, a minimum of $43,000 to workers ages 25-44, a minimum of $55,000 to workers ages 45-64, and a median of $82,000 for all good jobs. The report indicates that by 2031, only 36 percent of all jobs available to workers on the high school educational pathway will be good compared to 79% available to those on the bachelor's degree pathway and 52 percent for those on the middle-skills pathway. A primary takeaway from the report is that while the value of a college degree faces some skepticism, the demand for and return on investment of a bachelor’s degree will continue to grow in the decade ahead.
Four-Year Degree Attainment Key to a Rising Middle Class
The strong demand for workers with four-year degrees is equally evident in Michigan. Of the 50 high-demand, high-wage occupations in the state through 2030, 37 require a four-year college degree or higher, according to the state’s Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives. Producing more four-year degrees and above is the most reliable strategy for ensuring a robust middle class. Michiganders with bachelor’s degrees earn a median wage of $63,100 five years after graduation, while those with associate degrees earn $50,600 and those with a high school diploma $29,700, according to state data. That’s a difference of $33,400 annually, and $1.3 million over one’s career between those with a high school diploma and a bachelor’s degree. When factoring in graduate degrees, those earnings are $83,300, or almost three times the median earnings of those who did not participate in postsecondary education after high school—and it is the state’s public universities that consistently produce graduate degrees in significant numbers. These increased earnings allow young adults to buy homes, raise a family, and contribute more to their communities and the Michigan economy. The additional earnings premium that comes with a four-year degree or higher is especially impactful for those from low-income families.
Building Synergy on College Affordability and a Stronger Talent Pipeline
Michigan’s public universities are the backbone of the state’s workforce and are foundational to building the American middle class. These institutions, enrolling more than a quarter million students annually, represent the postsecondary sector that produces the greatest number of degrees and credentials needed to meet the high labor market demand of Michigan’s employers. And these universities are working collaboratively with state lawmakers to advance an agenda that is increasingly aligned to achieve the state’s Sixty by 30 educational attainment goal. As a state, we’ve been making progress, with a current attainment rate of 51.1 percent according to the Lumina Foundation. However, that is in comparison to a national average of 54.3 percent, ranking Michigan 37th. We cannot afford as a state to be outcompeted on talent production, whether at the national level or on the global stage.
The best state strategy for fueling postsecondary participation is to make college more affordable. And as a state we’ve made great strides in the past couple of years, thanks in part to bipartisan support that led to the creation of the Michigan Achievement Scholarship, and with it, a significant enhancement to affording a four-year degree for tens of thousands of Michigan high school graduates.
Equally important to assuring increased college degree production in the years ahead and further strengthening Michigan’s transition to an innovation economy is for state lawmakers to embark on a sustained period of strong reinvestment in our public universities. This fall, legislators may have the chance to continue to stimulate the economy through additional investment in the state universities. It’s an investment that will strengthen the universities’ ability to partner with state leaders and employers in boosting institutional and student outcomes, achieving workforce and economic development goals, and increasing prosperity for all Michigan residents.
Daniel Hurley is the Chief Executive Officer of the Michigan Association of State Universities